Analyst Warns Switch 2 Price Hikes Could Quiet Nintendo Year

Kantan Games analyst Dr. Serkan Toto warned that Nintendo could see subdued activity in the coming fiscal year after the company raised retail prices for the Switch 2 and set a unit target that implies a 17% decline in second-year sales. Nintendo’s forecast for the next fiscal year stands at 16.50 million Switch 2 units.

Toto noted that new consoles typically record higher unit sales in their second year compared with launch year results. He tied Nintendo’s outlook to rising production costs, particularly for memory, and described the company as having been “caught on the wrong foot” while building an early install base. “We truly live in weird times,” he said, and added that he expects the fiscal year ahead to be “relatively silent” for Nintendo.

Nintendo attributed the higher retail prices to increased costs for memory and other components. The company reported those production pressures in its most recent financial update and adjusted pricing to reflect higher supplier costs.

Nintendo’s content schedule includes several first‑party titles slated for release, including new entries in the Yoshi, Star Fox and Splatoon series. The company has a feature film based on The Legend of Zelda planned for 2027, and another major title, Pokémon Winds & Waves, is scheduled for 2027. Industry reports have also suggested the possibility of a remake of The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time, though that has not been confirmed by the company.

Analysts will watch whether sales of games and other media projects can offset slower hardware momentum. Nintendo’s ability to grow its user base depends on console availability and a steady pipeline of software that prompts purchases and long‑term engagement.

Memory prices rose after supply disruptions and stronger demand in recent years, leading several electronics makers to raise consumer prices. How buyers respond to the Switch 2 price increases will be a key factor in quarterly sales figures and in whether Nintendo revises its unit forecast.

Investors and market observers will look to Nintendo’s upcoming quarterly earnings and sales updates for clearer signals of consumer demand. Those reports should show whether higher console prices have reduced hardware momentum or whether software and media releases provide offsetting revenue.