Nintendo hit 10 of 13 Switch 2 Year One forecasts

Nintendo matched 10 of 13 first-party Switch 2 releases that a data-driven ‘Playbook’ forecast two years before the console’s debut. The console completed its first year with 13 confirmed first-party titles, and the Playbook matched most of those expected entries.

The Playbook used historical franchise patterns to predict releases. Its analysis included average years between franchise entries, the number of releases per franchise across generations, and the typical year within a generation when each series receives a release.

Confirmed Year One matches included a Mario Kart entry, a Pokémon title, Metroid Prime 4 launching on both Switch and Switch 2, a new 3D Donkey Kong, a revived Star Fox rail shooter, Yoshi and the Mysterious Book, and a Switch 2 Edition of Super Mario Party Jamboree that occupied the party franchise’s expected slot.

Four Playbook predictions did not materialize in Year One: a mainline Super Mario game, a new numbered Xenoblade Chronicles entry, a Fire Emblem remake, and a third new intellectual property. The Playbook had treated a mainline Mario release during a console’s first year as near certain; Nintendo did not release a new mainline Mario title in Year One.

Nintendo released a Super Mario Galaxy compilation earlier than the Playbook expected. The Playbook’s author attributed that scheduling change in part to adjustments around the Mario Movie sequel. Other Year One anomalies included Mario Tennis Fever arriving sooner than forecast and recording weak sales, and a surprise sequel to Kirby Air Riders. Xenoblade fans received a Switch 2 port of Xenoblade Chronicles X: Definitive Edition rather than a new numbered entry.

Year One also produced only two new first-party IPs: Drag X Drive and Nintendo Switch Welcome Tour. That count is the fewest new franchises in a home console’s debut year since the Nintendo 64 era.

The Playbook’s Year Two forecast listed multiple marquee releases, including mainline entries for Smash Bros, Kirby and Animal Crossing, a Nintendo Fit title, returns for Mario Maker and Fire Emblem, revivals for Wario Land and F-Zero, and remasters or remakes in the Mario & Luigi, Pokémon and Golden Sun series, plus two further new IPs. Adjustments since the forecast include a confirmed Splatoon spinoff and wider expectations for a long-awaited 3D Mario sequel. The Playbook also noted that Pokémon could appear in consecutive years depending on the release timing of Pokémon Winds & Waves.

Nintendo’s president, Shuntaro Furukawa, has indicated the company plans to increase software output in the Switch 2’s second year. The Playbook analysis referenced weaker sales for recent remakes, such as Advance Wars 1+2: Re-Boot Camp, as a factor that could affect which franchises Nintendo prioritizes in Year Two.

Nintendo and developers have scheduled further announcements for the coming months that will confirm which of the Playbook’s remaining Year Two forecasts will appear on the Switch 2 release calendar.